Time and again this
election, Jeb Bush has been outshone by more charismatic candidates. On Monday,
there was a slight variation on the story. Once again, Jeb was outdone by a
much more talented politician, but this time, it was a backer and not a rival:
Jeb’s big brother George W. Bush. It was the former president’s first
appearance on the campaign trail this cycle, and it came just a few days before
the South Carolina Republican primary, which is shaping up to be a
make-or-break moment for Jeb. President Bush, along with his wife Laura and
Senator Lindsey Graham, helped pack 3,000 people in for a rally in North
Charleston. It’s proof that his popularity endures in South Carolina, but it’s
too early to tell whether that popularity will prove transferrable. Speaking
for 20 minutes, George W. showed why—despite being “misunderestimated,” a
malapropism he repeated for comic effect in North Charleston—he was such a
successful politician. Bush is a natural, the kind of guy who can successfully
kick off his stump speech with a lengthy anecdote about pig manure, and he
seemed delighted to be back on the stump. Every other line seemed to elicit
either laughs or applause. Mentioning his writing projects, he said, “They
didn’t use to think I could read, much less write!” He quipped that the
signature on his paintings was worth far more than the art.
That made him a
particularly tough act for Jeb to follow. While the younger Bush—going without
glasses—was reasonably energetic, his wonky technocrat act simply doesn’t provide
the populist spark that his brother effortlessly delivers. Jeb offered a South
Carolina-pitched variation on his stump speech, including plenty on national
defense, strengthening the military, and overhauling the VA. It ended with the
story of Denisha Merriweather, a familiar Jeb anecdote: inspirational, in its
way, but complex and long, with none of the pith of George W. Too many words
have been spilled on the Freudian theater of the Bush family, and especially
the tension between George, the son who was never supposed to be president, and
Jeb, the son who was, but seeing them on-stage back to back provides clear
enough evidence why George served two terms and Jeb is struggling to hang on in
the Republican primary. George W., though, was doing his best for his little
brother. The former president has been described as “bewildered” by the course
of the primary so far, which has elevated Ted Cruz, a former aide whom Bush
dislikes, and Donald Trump, the loudmouth businessman who represents
practically Bush’s polar opposite (no compassion, fierce opposition to foreign
intervention, antipathy to immigrants, a very different accent, and a
successful business career). Bush tried to make his brother seem a compelling
alternative. “Being president requires sound judgment and good ideas. There’s
no doubt in my mind that Jeb Bush has the experience and the judgment to be
president,” George W. said, rejecting criticism of insiders. “If serving as
president makes me a part of the so-called establishment, I proudly carry that
label,” he said. There wasn’t a mention of Barack Obama or of Hillary Clinton
or of Bernie Sanders, but there were plenty of lines that seemed aimed directly
at both Cruz and Trump.
I understand that Americans are angry and frustrated. But we do not
need someone in the Oval Office who mirrors and inflames our frustration.
Jeb is man of deep and
humble faith that reveals itself through good works, not loud words,” the
former president said. “I understand that Americans are angry and frustrated.
But we do not need someone in the Oval Office who mirrors and inflames our
frustration. The great virtue of nominating Jeb, George W. said, was that he
could actually triumph in a general election: “We need to elect somebody who
can win in November. All the talk doesn’t matter if we can’t win. We need
somebody who can take a positive message across the country. But that overlooks
the huge stone in Jeb Bush’s passway: the primary electorate. Bush is stuck in
a doom loop. Almost every voter with whom I spoke seemed to really like Jeb,
and to think that he’d be a good president. But they valued electability, and
they doubted Jeb could win the primary election. As long as they doubt, they’re
unwilling to commit to him, which just makes it harder for him to win the primary.
Bush will only bounce back if he can break the loop.
It was a very Bushy
crowd: Lots of veterans; lots of men in double-breasted blazers; some veterans
in double-breasted blazers; plenty of Vera Bradley bags; young boys in
monogrammed sport coats with bright-colored pants. Volunteers were generally
easy to pick out: They were the clean-cut young men in khakis and either boat
shoes or duck boots. Perhaps needless to say, it was overwhelmingly white. Yet
while George W. Bush was a strong enough draw to get people to the rally, he
wasn’t enough to persuade all of them to back his brother. “He’s such a boss.
He’s just so relatable,” Taylor Mason marveled about George W. as he left the
rally. Mason is shopping for a candidate: Having been Carly Fiorina’s state
director until she left the race last week, he’s suddenly uncommitted. “Jeb’s a
really, really smart guy,” Mason said. “I don’t think his delivery is the best,
but that’s not what really matters.” But he was going to withhold judgment
until he’d had a chance to see John Kasich and Marco Rubio. Some attendees came
mostly to see the former president. Ron Rash sported a black “W” ball cap, but
he wasn’t quite so enthused about the younger Bush.
I’m a big W fan,
supporting Rubio, Rash told me. “Jeb would be fine, if he could get some
energy.” Rash worried that the candidate just didn’t get what was going on in
the country. “I just think Jeb is not listening to the anger,” Rash said, but
he dismissed Trump on the basis that anger alone isn’t a policy. “I want us to
be one nation under God, not one nation under Trump. He’s not a conservative.”
Stephen Townsend was feeling similarly. Was he committed to Jeb? “I’m committed
to the Republican Party,” he said. One of the things he likes about Jeb, he
said, is the network that he’d bring to the Oval Office with him, something he
thought had undermined Barack Obama. “The current president, he was a junior
senator,” he said. “He lacked the experience, the foreign policy, the
connections. Jeb can lean on his father and brother for experience.”
My concern with Jeb: Can he win? It’s the dynasty issue. I like the
Bush family. I’m just not sure the mainstream public is ready.
The question of how
George W. Bush’s experience resonates with the electorate is a complicated one.
In South Carolina, the former president is a popular figure, and his reputation
has rebounded somewhat nationwide. But there’s a reason he hasn’t been on the
trail yet, which is that the campaign is wary of his influence. Jeb Bush has
fought a tortured battle with his brother’s legacy, at times insisting he’s his
own man and at others praising his brother. He has waffled on how to deal with
the toxic legacy of the Iraq war. It’s only now, with the race on the line and
few other tricks working, that Jeb Bush has brought the former president along.
The Iraq war was a major point of contention in Saturday’s debate, as Donald
Trump took the gamble of turning it into a bludgeon against Jeb. “Obviously the
war in Iraq was a big fat mistake, alright?” he said “They lied. They said
there were weapons of mass destruction—there were none. And they knew there
were none.” (George W. let Jeb respond to that Monday. “I thought it was a
little strange that a frontrunning candidate would attack the president who
kept us safe while he was building a reality-TV show,” Jeb said, sounding
genuinely incredulous.)
Even if they’re not
personally bothered by the war or by complaints about a Bush family dynasty,
and even if they adore the former president, the people who came to see him
Monday aren’t politically naïve. George W. Bush remains highly unpopular with
Democrats and independents, and many Tea Party Republicans dismiss him as a
free-spending big-government disaster. “My concern with Jeb: Can he win? It’s
the dynasty issue,” said Mary Prentice, who’d driven from Lynchburg, Virginia,
to attend. “If his last name wasn’t Bush—I like the Bush family. I’m just not
sure the mainstream public is ready.” It was a familiar refrain: Sure, I admire
the Bush family, but I don’t think other people do. What was remarkable was how
many people, even at a Jeb Bush rally, felt drawn to Trump, who has become
Bush’s arch nemesis on debate stages and on the stump. A poll released Monday
illustrated their divergent fates, placing Trump’s support at 35 percent in
South Carolina, with Jeb tied for last with just 7 percent support. Where Bush
inspired lukewarm fondness, Trump inspired more passion—often a guilty love.
Helen Mahoney brought
her teenage daughter to see Bush, and she was thinking about voting for him.
But she was thinking about the frontrunner, too. “Trump has brought up
everything we feel. I really think he cares about America,” she said. “I don’t
like the way he says it.” Franny Russell told me she’s pretty much always
decided on a candidate by this stage in a primary year, but she was still
wavering. The fact that Lindsey Graham and David Wilkins, the popular former
speaker of the state house and ambassador to Canada, had endorsed Jeb was a
powerful sign, but she couldn’t commit, not yet. “Trump is saying all the right
things, but I don’t see myself voting for him,” she said. “It’s almost taboo to
think of voting for him.” In other words, Mahoney and Russell agreed with
George W. Bush’s critique of Trump as a loose cannon with too dour an outlook,
but there’s a difference between making an effective case against Trump and
making an affirmative case for Bush.
